Mail & Guardian Africa is running an article I wrote on why – and how – Africa must end its addiction to commodities in 2016, available here.
Red Sea Report Continued
There are some intriguing new developments in the Red Sea region.
Eritrea has joined the “Islamic Coalition Against Terrorism.” What is so interesting about that? Well, the list of countries in that coalition are all good friends of the United States. American arms exporters make lots of dinars selling to those friends.
So what does all this have to do with Eritrea? Well, can one say that the friend of my friend should also be my friend? Unfortunately, Eritrea and the US still do not call themselves friends. So, what is going on?
Read MoreAfrica's Outlook for 2016
For many African nations, the year 2016 is presenting some difficult challenges. For the second time since 1960, the commodity exports that bring in most of Africa’s revenue have suffered severe world price declines.
Between 1960 and 1980, high world prices for African commodity exports, especially crude oil, minerals such as copper, iron ore, manganese, and cobalt, brought African governments considerable revenue. Unfortunately, that revenue was not used to finance economic diversity, especially in agro-industry, manufacturing, transportation and intra-African trade. As a result, when world commodity prices dropped heavily between 1975 and 1980, many African countries found themselves heavily in debt and unable to service those debts. Too much of the earlier wealth was squandered on the financing of white elephants, the disastrous nationalization of private companies, and sadly, extensive corruption.
Read MoreUSAID on Power Africa
Power Africa is beginning to have a positive impact on electricity production. As USAID recently noted in this blog post, ContourGlobal, an energy company I work with, is addressing Senegal’s power needs with a new plant built with IFC and OPIC financing. Bringing reliable electricity to Senegal will be the key to jump-starting its indigenous economy and fulfilling its potential for growth.
The Red Sea Is Slipping into Total Arab Control
Hey, all you Abyssinians out there. While you are wasting time squabbling with each other and not talking to each other, the governments of the Arabian Peninsula are eating your lunch.
Have you noticed that warships from the United Arab Emirates are operating out of the port of Asab 24/7? Their interest is in Yemen, not in Eritrea or Ethiopia. There are reports that Saudi Arabia has taken a 50-year lease on Asab. If that is true, the next step will be Sharia Law in the Horn of Africa big time.
I think it is time for Abyssinians to take back control of the west bank of the Red Sea before it is too late.
One way to accomplish this is for Eritrea and Ethiopia to finally end the war of 1998-2000 and normalize relations. It can be done as a win-win.
Read MoreOn Ethiopia
The political leaders of the Ethiopian Government have a policy of killing all opponents who take to the streets to demonstrate against them. Other opponents who do not demonstrate but make public statements instead, are sent to jail for long periods.
I fail to understand why the Ethiopian regime feels it necessary to exercise such extreme control to the point of committing murder periodically against their own citizens. The government is receiving good marks from the international community for its investments in infrastructure and agriculture. If it could relax and loosen up its controls, it could become popular.
Read MoreTribute to the late Barry Schweid
The national press recently reported the death of Barry Schweid, a veteran Associated Press correspondent who covered the State Department for thirty-five years.
I knew Barry during my assignments to the Department of State as a Foreign Service Officer. I found him to be one of the most serious journalists among the corps of correspondents covering the State Department. His was interested mainly in developing solid analysis of the day’s events. He would frequently consult me and other senior State Department officials. He never asked for classified information. His objective was to understand the meaning of events and the background to developments in foreign countries. His professionalism was outstanding. He was a role model for all the State Department correspondents who worked with him and who currently survive him.
Drought and famine in Ethiopia
According to press reports, Ethiopia is currently going through a very severe drought, and is in dire need of international food assistance to make up for failed crops.
Ethiopia has a history of famine situations due to drought. During every drought year, the international community has been supportive with shipments of food relief. Since the year 2002, Ethiopia has been coping nicely with dry weather. The construction of new roads has allowed the movement of food crops from wet regions to dry regions, thereby making it unnecessary to call for international aid. In view of the improved transportation situation, the fact that food aid is needed in the year 2015 indicates that the drought situation must be truly severe. In short, the entire country must be having a rain deficit and not just certain regions as in the past.
Read MoreSanctions on Eritrea
The United Nations Security Council has decided to continue sanctions against Eritrea for another year. This decision has no basis in fact. It was taken because certain persons in the highest levels of the United States Government have mean spirited grievances against Eritrean President Isayas Afwerki. All accusations against Eritrea regarding alleged assistance to the Islamist terrorist group al-Shebab in Somalia have never been substantiated. All experts on Somalia now agree that for the past three years, there have not even been rumors about such assistance. This is pure bullying.
Will US punish African presidents who change constitutions?
The United States is warning African leaders not to change their constitutions to eliminate two-term limits for heads of state. It is not apparent that they are taking the warnings seriously.
Many African heads of state are subject to constitutional two-term limits, similar to the situation in the United States. As they approach the end of their mandates, a number of leaders want to change their national constitutions to eliminate the two-term limit so that they can continue to run for election and remain in power indefinitely.
Read MoreAfrican Governance is Still Problematic
Mo Ibrahim, the Sudanese billionaire who keeps track of the state of governance in Africa, has issued his annual report. He continues to report very little progress in democracy in most African countries.
Ibrahim’s gloomy outlook for African democracy is particularly relevant this year and next because of the large number of elections that are scheduled. Unfortunately, in many of the elections, incumbent heads of state are attempting to revise their constitutions that limit presidential mandates to two terms. Needless to say, these actions are causing major unhappiness among the populations.
Read MoreMilitary Coup in Burkina Faso
FORMER PRESIDENT BLAISE COMPAORE IS UNDOUBTEDLY BEHIND IT
The elite Burkina Faso military unit that was formerly the Presidential Guard has executed a coup d’état. The transitional regime that came to power in October 2014 after the hasty departure of former President Blaise Compaoré, has been overthrown. The new head of state is General Gilbert Diendiere, the former Chief of Staff of the army under Compaoré. Both the United Nations and the African Union have condemned the military takeover.
The interim regime was in the process of organizing new elections. The political party of former President Blaise Compaoré was declared ineligible to participate in the election along with anyone who had been associated with Compaoré’s rule. It was probably this decision that precipitated the coup.
Read MoreSouth Africa inaugurates its first new power plant in 20 years
After many months of negative economic results, South Africa can use some good news. The announcement August 30 of the inauguration of the nation’s first new power plant in twenty years is significant for South Africa’s anemic economic health.
ESKOM, the state owned electric utility, has been suffering from poor management and poor planning for over a decade. As a result, the expansion of electric power has not met the growing needs of both industrial and household users. Unprecedented rolling power outages have become the norm. New industrial investments have been discouraged because of the power deficit. The decline of ESKOM has done significant damage to the overall economy.
Read MoreAfrican Growth and Opportunity Act
AFRICA TO ENJOY TEN MORE YEARS OF AGOA
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) will be extended for an additional ten years. President Obama signed the legislation into law on June 29, 2015.
AGOA became operational for the first time at the beginning of 2001. President Clinton signed the legislation toward the end of his second term, but the program began during the Republican administration of George W. Bush.
Read MoreThe Way Forward for Buhari
Nigerian President-elect Buhari will be inaugurated at the end of May 2015. He has constituted a transitional task force to develop priorities for his first year in office. One of his top priorities is to diminish corruption. One of the most significant sources of diverted revenue is the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).
The NNPC is the government’s own oil and gas entity. It receives all of the revenue from oil, gas and LNG sales, as well as oil, gas and LNG royalties. It is from these revenues that money belonging to the people of Nigeria is diverted from the rightful owner. What is to be done?
Read MoreNigeria Election
THE AFTERMATH OF THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
AND NOW THE HARD PART
Most Nigerians are euphoric over the results of the presidential election that took place on Saturday, March 28, 2015. The election was conducted honestly. The state-by-state count was free and fair. And most surprising of all, the incumbent, President Goodluck Jonathan, conceded defeat even before the final count was completed. In a country where every election since 1999 was rigged, the May 28 event constituted nothing short of a revolution.
Civilian rule returned in 1999 after two decades of military dictatorship. It is impossible to say that the return of civilian rule, within democratic institutions, resulted in good governance. On the contrary, Nigerian politicians in power reached new heights of corruption and dysfunctional government between 1999 and 2015. The new President-elect, Muhammadu Buhari, is facing an overwhelming challenge to clean things up and reform the entire governmental and military management system.
Read MoreEritrea
PRESSURE THE UNITED STATES TO ALLOW THE UN TO LIFT SANCTIONS ON ERITREA IMMEDIATELY.
Normalization with Eritrea has become more important than ever before. US national security interests in Yemen and the Arabian Peninsula are at stake.
Back in December 2013, I wrote an article for “African Arguments” that called for the international community to “bring the State of Eritrea in from the cold.” I argued that UN sanctions should be lifted, and that Eritrea and Ethiopia need to be reconciled for the economic benefit of both nations.
Read MoreDemocratic Republic of the Congo
The internal power struggle in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is entering a crucial stage.
The regime of President Joseph Kabila has become significantly weakened between the middle of the year 2014 and the early days of February 2015.
The Congolese constitution stipulates that an elected president can serve a maximum of two five-year terms. President Kabila is now in his second term that will end in November 2016 when a national election is scheduled. During the second half of 2014, President Kabila’s majority coalition engaged in extensive calls for the constitution to be amended in order to allow for a third term.
Read MoreCôte d'Ivoire: It Is Time for Côte d'Ivoire and the ICC to End the Nation's Cycle of Revenge and Retribution - Amnesty Simone Gbagbo and Indict Blaise Compaoré
Regime Change in Burkina Faso: Implications for Sub-Saharan Africa
A political upheaval in the Republic of Burkina Faso during a three-day period, October 29-31, 2014, resulted in the premature departure of President Blaise Compaore who had been head of state since 1987. What triggered the mass movement of over a hundred thousand protesters in the streets of the capital city Ouagadougou was Compaore’s attempt to amend the constitution to eliminate the two-term limit on the presidential mandate. He wanted to run for a third term, and the population was fed up with his long misrule. The mob burned down the parliament to prevent the enactment of the constitutional change, and then forced the President to flee for his life in a French military helicopter. It was notable that the Burkina military, especially the elite presidential guard, did not defend the president against the protesters.
Read More